Aden Sisters: "...stay with gold"

The following is an excerpt from the much acclaimed Aden Sisters newsletter (Mary Anne and Pamela Aden)

..THE CRISIS GOES ON AND ON

Very quickly, the initial Obama optimism essentially dissipated, primarily due to the worsening economy. Job losses are intensifying, the stimulus package isn’t what many thought it would be, the debt load is overwhelming and there doesn’t appear to be an end in sight.
The seriousness of this situation also seems to be sinking in more deeply. Increasingly, people are recognizing that this isn’t your typical recession. It’s global and massive, way bigger than anything ever seen before and it potentially involves the collapse of the banking and financial system.
Obama has been at the forefront repeatedly warning that, “we are facing an economic crisis of historic proportions… our nation will sink into a crisis that we may be unable to reverse… we risk falling into a deflationary spiral”, and so on.

FINANCIAL CRISES OF THE PAST

Most of us in this generation have never suffered through a financial crisis, but they are nothing new. We went back to review financial crises of the past and here’s what we found…
The past 800 years have involved a series of bubbles and busts, debt defaults, banking collapses, excessive speculation, panics, currency devaluations, recessions, deflations, inflation and of course normal times. And ever since the first stocks traded 400 years ago, the markets have had a long consistent history of booms and crashes.
Internationally, there have actually been 148 crises in the past 140 years. In more recent times, an interesting analysis looked at the aftermath of 14 severe banking busts, including the Great Depression, and others in various countries that have followed since then. Most important, the conclusions reinforce that the effects of this crisis could drag on for quite a long time.
So drastic measures had to be taken as every effort is made to soften the blow.

GOLD SOARING ON UNCERTAINTY

These same factors have also been driving the gold market. It soared, briefly rising back above $1000, and within a couple of dollars of its all time, record high.
Gold is once again showing that it is the safe haven and it thrives in times of global turmoil, uncertainty, nervousness and fear. That’s what we’re seeing now and gold is certainly behaving in traditional fashion.
But this is just the beginning. Once inflation eventually kicks in, in reaction to all of this massive government spending, gold is going to soar, but this is going to take time.
It’s not going to happen from one day to the next, but that’s the underlying foundation pushing gold’s bull market higher, and it’s not going away any time soon. So stay with your gold. It’s your best, and probably only solid bet looking out to the years ahead.

Mar 20, 2009
Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

Aden Sisters: Keep Cash and Gold

As 2008 bows and leaves the global economic stage amid the smoking debris and rubble from collapsing firms and financial corporations and as we move out there into the big unknown we call The Future, it might be in order to take along a comforting and refreshing view with us .
It springs from the latest Aden Sisters commentary at Kitco titled "The End of a Bad Year", where the following snippet comes from.

"KEEP CASH AND GOLD

In the meantime, keep your gold and cash, which are best regardless of what happens. In this year of extreme market drops and volatility, for example, gold has held up best and it’s been the best investment. It’s also one of the most important guideposts to be watching. If gold can now stay above $857, it’ll be very bullish, strongly suggesting it’s headed higher and the above, more positive scenario will likely unfold.

Cash is important for dozens of reasons, and it’ll enable you to take advantage of the many bargains now available and during 2009 in order to add or buy new positions, especially in precious metals, stocks, currencies and most gold shares. Whatever you do, don’t sell now. We think we could soon be in for some long overdue good news."

by Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

Aden Sisters: Soaring Markets...

"..Normally, for instance, you'll see the so-called smart money go into a developing bull market first. This includes investors who understand the markets and the big picture, some professionals and so on.

As prices rise, more gold bugs will move in, usually followed by some early-bird Wall Street types.

This is basically where we are now, in the second phase. But as New Orleans illustrated, this bull market rise is still lacking investor and Wall Street enthusiasm. That's still to come and we think that'll probably happen once gold hits a new record high above $850.

During the third phase of a bull market, the public jumps in. The public is usually late to the party and in their collective excitement, they'll drive prices up to extreme levels. The most recent example of this happened in the late 1990s when tech stocks were all the rage. Everyone was "into high tech" and these stocks were going to keep rising in the "new era," but of course they didn't.

As for gold, the public is barely aware of gold's ongoing rise and they're not in the market. The reason that's good is because the longer gold goes without attracting much attention, the higher it will ultimately go once the public starts moving in.

This suggests that the gold price could literally skyrocket at some point to levels far higher than most people are expecting. And with world tensions increasing on several fronts, it's providing plenty of fuel for the markets..."

To read the article please click HERE

Aden Sisters: A Unique Era

A Unique Era

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden The Aden Sisters Jun 18, 2007 Courtesy of www.adenforecast.com

The gold market has been under pressure lately and some investors are feeling a little nervous. But the major trend is clearly up. That being the case, let's stand back and look at the facts...

Gold has been rising for over six years and it's gained 158% since then. That works out to 26% per annum, which has consistently been better than most other markets. The recent weakness is a bump in the road and it's not unusual. We continue to believe that gold will likely rise for years to come, eventually reaching at least $2,000 and it'll probably go even higher.

Read the entire Aden Forecast report HERE

Aden Sisters: Keep Focused...

KEEP FOCUSED

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden

Gold is on the rise. Investors are excited, especially after last month's volatility, which proved to be nerve wracking for many gold investors. This alone reinforces why it's important to focus on the major trend.

Chart 1 shows gold's mega uptrend and as you can see, the volatility over the past year doesn't look like much. On the contrary, this chart illustrates gold's strength as it sits near the high side of the rise that started in 2001. This is the most important picture to keep in mind when investing in gold. The bull market since 2001 is clearly underway.

If this mega uptrend and channel stays in force, and we believe that it will for the reasons discussed in our article of March 9, 2007, then this bull market rise is going to make the 1970s spectacular rise look small in comparison. It will take time, but it's powerful because it's more of a global market today compared to the 1970s.

We can't stress enough how important the major trends are. Most assets have been up since 2003, but it's also important to see where the real strength lies. And it lies in gold because gold is better than stocks, bonds and the currencies.

GOLD: BEST PROFIT POTENTIAL

Note that the mega trend changed in 2002 when the ratio between gold and the Dow Industrials changed to favor gold (see Chart 2). These changes do not happen often but when they do, then the pendulum has swung and it still has a long way to go. This means that gold will continue to outperform stocks for years to come, like it's done in recent years. So this is another key mega chart to keep in mind when investing.

When we say gold, we mean the gold universe and the best investments within this ample sector. That includes silver, the other precious metals, natural resources and energy.

Other positive signs that reinforce a powerful bull market are when gold is strong in all currencies, and when all of the precious metals are rising in major uptrends. This is happening today.

Gold is strong in all currencies and so is silver (see Chart 3, which shows silver's surge against the euro since 2003). And all of the precious metals are on the rise.

SUPPLY NOT KEEPING UP WITH DEMAND

We have often discussed the reasons why gold will stay on track to rise in the years, and more likely decades ahead. Aside from growing global monetary inflation, price inflation, out of sight deficits and debt, a weak U.S. dollar and the war, there's also a growing shortage. In fact, there's currently a shortage in many commodities.

Gold production is down around the world. South African gold production, for instance, fell to its lowest level in 84 years last year. From the U.S., to Australia, Peru, Russia to Canada, production was also down. China was about the only country to increase its production.

And this is happening while demand is growing worldwide. The growth in China's demand for commodities is unprecedented, which will keep prices high. Plus, most investors don't realize that gold's been rising for six years, gaining about 200%, and once this becomes more obvious, it'll unleash a flood of new demand. Central banks are now also selling less gold.

HEADED HIGHER

An intermediate rise we call C started on January 5, which means it's been underway for about three months.

C rises tend to be the best, strongest rise in a bull market when gold reaches new bull market highs. Gold is currently at a nine month high and it has a good chance of testing and surpassing the May highs. For now, if gold can rise and stay clearly above $690, then $722 will become an easy target. Gold would be impressive above this level as it would reconfirm that a very strong bull market is underway.

By Mary Anne and Pamela Aden
17 April 2007

This commentary has been provided courtesy of adenforecast.com

Mary Anne & Pamela Aden are internationally known analysts and editors of The Aden Forecast, a market newsletter providing specific forecasts on gold, gold shares and the other major markets. Click here to visit their website at www.adenforecast.com