Apr 5, 2007

The "R man" at it ...(again!)

Richard Russell"... Well, there is one other phenomena that I want to talk about, and we call them bull and bear markets. The thing about a big bull or a big bear market is that they both end in exhaustion. And to become exhausted, a trend has to overdue itself on both the upside or on the downside.

I'm thinking of the bull market in gold. Unfortunately, I can't tell you when, but somewhere ahead the gold bull market is going to get "crazy," it's going to "blow its top" and end in exhaustion. It's going to become so wild and speculative that you'll just shake your head and mumble that "I've never seen anything like this." Yes it's going to happen somewhere ahead -- it's going to happen sure as shootin', but damn it, I can't tell you when.

Since there are always bull markets operating somewhere in something, why do I choose gold as an example? I pick gold because gold is the most emotional of all items. The gold-bugs love gold. The honest money crowd loves gold. The anti-inflationists love gold. The government hates gold. The central bankers despise gold. The bankers and the inflationists abhor gold. The yellow metal is loved and it is hated. A gold bull market brings out elements of both fear and greed. The fiat money crowd is fearful when gold advances. The honest money bunch love it when gold advances. Gold brings out the emotions like no other tradeable item. When gold finally goes into its third speculative phase, there'll be nothing like it. It will be a spectacle to remember."

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