Εκτόξευση των τιμών σποτ ουρανίου προβλέπουν οι τράπεζες

...κάλλιο αργά;
Επί τέλους άρχισε κάτι να "οσμίζεται" ο ημεδαπός οικονομικός τύπος για την πρόσφατη -αλλά και συνεχιζόμενη- έκρηξη των τιμών ουρανίου (διαβάστε πρόσφατο άρθρο στη ΝΑΥΤΕΜΠΟΡΙΚΗ)
Εδώ και χρόνια τώρα οι ξένοι αναλυτές του τομέα ενέργειας το φωνάζουν σε κάθε κατεύθυνση. Το ουράνιο έφυγε από τα $7/ουγγιά το 2003 για να φθάσει σήμερα στα $135/ουγγιά!
Σχεδόν 20 φορές επάνω μέσα σε τέσσερα μόνο χρόνια. Πού θα φθάσει; Μερικοί μιλάνε για πάνω από τα $500/ουγγιά. Αυτή τη στιγμή εκατοντάδες νέοι πυρηνικοί αντιδραστήρες είναι υπό κατασκευή παγκοσμίως. Αποτελούν την απάντηση στη μόλυνση του περιβάλλοντος από τα κατάλοιπα των κάυσεων υδρογονανθράκων. Μόνη πρώτη ύλη τους είναι το ουράνιο.
Διαβάστε σχετικά στις σελίδες του oikonomika blog -μην μου πείτε ότι δεν σας έχω και εγώ προειδοποιήσει έγκαιρα ;-))

China is Uranium Hungry!

China shops for foreign uranium properties as possible domestic shortage looms

The possibility of domestic uranium shortages has the China National Nuclear Corp., the nation’s largest nuclear power plant builder, in discussions with numerous foreign uranium explorationists.
Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Monday , 21 May 2007

RENO, NV -

China's largest nuclear power plant builder said it is in discussions with companies in Australia, Kazakhstan and Mongolia because of a potential domestic uranium shortage.

The Wall Street Journal reported Sunday that London-based UraMin (AIM, TSX: UMN) has been negotiating with China National Nuclear Corp. (CNNC). Lui Xuehong, Vice President of the CNNC's overseas uranium exploration unit, told the Power & Alternative Energy Summit that discussions are also ongoing with companies in Canada, Niger and Algeria.

Liu specifically referred to UraMin's "good assets in Africa," which include acquired or pending mineral rights in Namibia, South Africa, Mozambique, Botswana, Chad and the Central African Republic.

"We will participate in overseas exploration of uranium by buying mining rights of deposits or taking a stake in a particular project," Liu told the conference.

Shanghai Daily reported that China needs to add two reactors a year to meet its target of generating 4% of its power from nuclear plants by 2020. China National Nuclear plans to spend US$52 billion to build domestic reactors by 2020.

CanAlaska Primed for a Big Uranium Discovery in Athabasca

Article from www.resourceinvestor.com
Excerpted

CanAlaska Primed for a Big Uranium Discovery in Athabasca

By Andrew K. Burger
12 May 2007 at 09:18 PM GMT-04:00

DAMMAM, Saudi Arabia (ResourceInvestor.com) -- With the spot price of uranium rising at exponential rates, uranium miners are flying high following decades of depressed prices and little new mine development or exploration activity. Shares of Denison [TSX:DML; AMEX:DNN] and Energy Metals Corp. [TSX:EMC; NYSE:EMU] jumped 5% last week following rumours that they were on the acquisition radars of Cameco [TSX:CCO; NYSE:CCJ] and France's Areva, two of the world's largest uranium miners.

When it comes to high quantities of high-grade and relatively easily accessible uranium ores, Canada's Athabasca Basin is geologically unique in the world. Encompassing an area of some 100,000 square kilometres in northern Saskatchewan and a small portion in Alberta, the region is the source of approximately 30% of the world's uranium.

Looking to follow the path blazed by Cameco and Dension, CanAlaska Uranium Ltd. [TSX-V:CVV] may be on the verge of becoming the third major uranium producer in the region. The company on May 7 announced that it had signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with a consortium of South Korean companies led by the Hanwha Corp. to negotiate investment terms for the exploration of CanAlaska's Cree East Project.

Please click HERE to view entire article

Jay Taylor on Uranium and CanAlaska (CVV.V)

Click HERE for the the latest views of noted resources analyst Jay Taylor regarding uranium and his views on CanAlaska Uranium (pdf file -you'll need Adobe Acrobat).
It should be noted that since the publication of Jay's comments, the spot price of uranium has risen a further US$7 to US$120 per pound.

BBC: a "Nuclear renaissance"...

Planning for a new nuclear age
As the World Nuclear Association prepares to discuss how to meet the huge surge in demand for nuclear power, the BBC's Humphrey Hawksley wonders if the so-called "nuclear renaissance" could also prompt a complete re-examination of global nuclear policy...

Read this article HERE

U.S. nuclear energy push could generate more global competition for uranium

Mineweb: Strategic consulting firm Stratfor suggests the resurgence of U.S. nuclear energy demand may be stalled by a lack of domestic waste repositories.

Author: Dorothy Kosich
Posted: Monday , 16 Apr 2007

RENO, NV -

Austin, Texas, strategic consulting firm Stratfor suggests that a renewed push for U.S. nuclear energy "could lead to even more global competition for uranium and a boom in nuclear energy investment."

The biggest stumbling block to domestic nuclear power is the lack of a nuclear storage facility, Stratfor warned in a recently published global market brief.

The proposed Yucca Mountain national repository in Nevada remains stalled, while concerns about terrorism have slowed the Bush Administration's Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP) promoting the reprocessing of nuclear fuel. Meanwhile, the storage of nuclear waste at nuclear facilities has drawn substantial local opposition.

Stratfor's analysis found that the United States may have to take a second look at nuclear energy "since expected GHG (Global Greenhouse Gases) regulations and requirements for coal plants to use cleaner technology will make coal-power energy more expensive." Nevertheless, the report suggests that "merely replacing the existing U.S. fleet of nuclear reactors could be worth as much money as all of the planned expansions in France, Russia and China combined."

"Such a development would not only revolutionize the U.S. domestic nuclear industry but would also lead to expanded nuclear technology research and development worldwide," Stratfor asserted. "Also U.S. acceptance of nuclear energy will likely lead to a quick increase in nuclear operations in other industrialized countries that have been hesitant to pursue further nuclear activity because of safety concerns."

"In the long term, geopolitical struggles for uranium supplies could emerge, with Central Asian countries and Russia becoming increasingly important players in world energy markets."

Stratfor contends that other factors will generate increased support for U.S. nuclear energy including: a younger generation--too young to recall nuclear disasters-concerned about the impacts of climate change; the growing popularity of energy independence with politicians and the general public; and support by some environmentalists for nuclear energy.

Internationally, industrial nations currently dependant on nuclear power now seek to secure uranium supplies in the face of growing global demand, particularly from developing countries such as China and India. While Stratfor acknowledged the possibility of future short-term uranium supply shortages, "the longer trend of rising uranium prices [as much as 57% this year] will not abate."

"Behind this surge are myriad developments attributable to increasing concern about rising petroleum prices; a belief that nuclear energy development can aid domestic energy security as natural gas and oil supplies from unstable countries increasingly are seen as risky; and current and expected fossil fuel energy sources," according to Stratfor.

Regulations on fuels emitting GHG will make fossil fuel more expensive compared to nuclear energy, Stratfor claimed.

Nations with abundant supplies of fossil fuels and uranium, such as Australia and Russia, can export uranium, develop their own nuclear industries, or pursue a combination of both. "Australia, which has massive coal supplies, is more likely to develop nuclear energy in response to carbon regulations, rather than out of a desire to bolster its exports of other energy supplies," Stratfor suggested.

In the U.S., Stratfor cited TXU's plan to scrap the majority of its planned coal plants and, instead, build two to five new nuclear plants in Texas. "The highly publicized private equity takeover of the energy utility company and its deal with national environmental groups, which dropped their lawsuits against the TXU's proposals to build 11 coal plants, was a major symbolic turning point," Stratfor said. "It bolstered environmentalists' belief that attacking coal expansion is an effective way to force companies to pursue cleaner energies. As coal plants continue to come under attack, nuclear energy will only grow more attractive."

Stratfor noted that more than 20 proposed U.S. nuclear facilities are now undergoing regulatory review, "and many in the industry and the Bush Administration act as if increased nuclear development is a reality."

Nonethless, "as long as Yucca Mountain is sidelined, with no immediate solution in sight, the risks involved in developing nuclear facilities facility will prevent a significant boom in the industry," Stratfor concluded.

Uranium Spot Price Climbs Above the $100/Lb mark

Last week witnessed a US$18 leap in the Uranium Spot price to US$113/Lb, the highest ever in the last 30 years:



This Uranium Bull Market seems to have no end in sight. Some of the contributing factors to this were examined at last week's Uranium Stock Summit in Las Vegas:

• Saudi Peak Oil. Where a combination of data related to Saudi Arabia’s oil production like price, the number of rigs deployed in that country, and the amount of oil being produced from its wells clearly point to exhaustion. Given that oil prices are hovering around historic highs (the incentive), and (B) the Saudis are clearly looking to take advantage (demonstrated by the number of rigs now set to the task of finding more oil), then (C) the only logical reason that oil production is plummeting is that Saudi Arabia has peaked.
  
  
• Saudi peak oil is -of course- just the tip of the "oilberg". Other producers are sure to follow suit.
  
• Nuclear Power comeback. Nuclear power is no longer an option, but a prerequisite, but the problem is that in order to replace the looming energy shortfall, the world would need another 10000 nuclear reactors, whereas only 100 are now in planning or construction!
  

So there you are, but before committing your hard earned cash buying Uranium stocks, please.. D.Y.O.D.D.

CanAlaska Finalizes Uranium Exploration Venture

Vancouver, Canada, April 11th, 2007 --
CanAlaska Uranium Ltd. (CVV -- TSX.V) (the "Company" or "CanAlaska") is pleased to report that the Company has finalized an agreement with Mitsubishi Development Pty Ltd. ("MDP"), an Australian based mining company wholly owned by Mitsubishi Corporation in Japan, to undertake uranium exploration on CanAlaska's 100%-owned West McArthur project as originally reported last year (see CanAlaska press release dated September 6th, 2006). The West McArthur Project is situated in Canada's Athabasca Basin in the Province of Saskatchewan approximately 8km west of the McArthur River uranium mine (389,100,000 lbs. @ 25% U3O8). The Project comprises nine large claim blocks across 359 square kilometres (88,516 acres)...

Click HERE for the entire report in pdf (Adobe Acrobat) format.

Casey Research: Uranium at $500?!

Uranium at $500?!

"...Okay, here’s the latest on the uranium front. Word on the street is that, due to the Ranger Mine flood, that company has now fallen back on force majeure for its outstanding contracts. Specifically, its deliveries will fall short by 5 million pounds next year. That shortfall is, to use the correct word, impossible to make up through increased production from other suppliers.

This has triggered a mad scramble, because due to technical considerations, a nuclear power plant simply cannot run out of fuel. But the problem is massively compounded by the fact that the utilities are now competing with the investment-oriented uranium participation funds for yellowcake. Simply, the funds are experiencing a wave of new investment demand… but they cannot take in new investors unless and until they are able to buy more uranium.

It is, you could say, a tug of war between fear (the utilities running out of fuel) and greed (the profit incentive of the fund managers).

Sitting in the driver’s seats we have the mines, at least those that still have not already signed long-term contracts for all of their production. And word is they are actively playing the utilities off against the funds in order to lock in higher prices.

While the news hasn’t been announced to the markets yet, our well-placed sources tell us that at the latest auction, uranium may have traded as high as $115 a pound. But more interestingly, industry pros are now saying that this is just the beginning of a whole new run-up in uranium prices. It is now pretty much a given that U3O8 is headed for $150 a pound, but there is an increasing level of chatter that uranium might go to $250, or even $500 a pound, as the supply choke worsens.

Of course, this is all wonderful news for the uranium juniors, and investors in their shares, but not all of these companies are cut from the same cloth. Most, and by that I mean the vast majority, are paper tigers propped up by nothing but a promoter’s well-told tales.

And almost all the juniors are well ahead of themselves on any even remotely rational pricing model.

So, if you are invested in this atomic-powered sector, be happy, but be cautious. As always, we’ll keep you informed on the latest in the Casey Energy Speculator."

Mineweb: World's hottest uranium stocks

Author: Barry Sergeant
Posted: Tuesday , 27 Mar 2007
JOHANNESBURG -

Prices for uranium (uranium oxide, U3O8, to be exact) have soared in the past few years as record crude oil prices have forced public and private sectors to announce rafts of nuclear reactors as a cost-effective energy alternative. Long-established uranium producers have benefited enormously; the market capitalization of the No 1 producer, Cameco, is close to US$14bn.

Uranium prices have grown ten fold in just five years. Between the early 1990s and 2004, uranium markets were in a supply/demand deficit, balanced by inventories held by nuclear generators and traders. Prices started turning in 2001, from between $5 and $10/pound, to current quotes around the $80/pound mark. Over the past five years, Cameco's NYSE stock price has increased from less than $3 a share to more that $45, with current quotes around $40.25.

The global uranium rush has triggered an explosion in exploration, along with entrepreneurs dusting off dormant projects, and rushing to the market. This raises serious questions of potential risk for equity investors, confronted by a plethora of choices.

In a major new report, RBC Capital Markets (RBCCM) notes that "many uranium exploration and development projects are being advanced by numerous companies", and finds it "inevitable that some of these companies will successfully bring their projects into production in the coming years - something the market will need in the future to bridge the supply/demand gap that we expect to exist after 2013".

There are many ways of valuing mining companies, and uranium has been out of fashion for so long that a number of additional risks may require consideration. In an examination of 21 listed uranium stocks, RBCCM has chosen from several different valuation methodologies, depending on the company. For uranium companies with existing operations, a forward EPS (earnings per share) or CFPS (cash flow per share) multiple is applied, reflecting valuation relative to peers and the market cycle.

For companies developing new projects, RBCCM often applies a net asset value (NAV) approach, sometimes coupled with a forward EPS multiple. For exploration companies where it is too early to calculate an NAV, RBCCM looks to the enterprise value (EV) per pound of U3O8 in resource. While the EV/pound metric is "easy" to calculate, RBCCM cautions that it should not be used in isolation.

Cameco is, of course, the world's No 1 producer of uranium oxide. Its principal interests comprise Canada's McArthur River and the flood-affected Cigar Lake, Inkai in Kazakhstan, and the US's Crow Butte and Smith Ranch/Highland operations. Rio Tinto, one of the world's biggest diversified resources entities (along with BHP Billiton and Anglo American) rates as No 2 world producer of uranium oxide, thanks to its stake in Energy Resources of Australia (ERA), and its 69% interest in the Rossing mine in Namibia.

France-based Areva is No 3, and like Cameco, has interests in Canada's McArthur River and Cigar Lake. KazAtomProm rates as No 4 producer, thanks to its interest, like Cameco, in Inkai. BHP Billiton is next on the list, followed by TVEL (Russia), Navoi (Uzbekistan), Vostgok (Ukraine), Nufcor (South Africa) and CNNC (China). There are also lesser-known producers of uranium oxide, such as AngloGold Ashanti, as a by-product from its gold mines in the Vaal River district in South Africa.

These big names among uranium producers present at least two problems for the investor: many are not listed, and where listed, uranium income, while substantial, may not be material to the stock as a whole. BHP Billiton, the world's biggest diversified resources stock, is a prime example. Its huge Olympic Dam operation in Australia, run primarily as a copper producer, owns by far the biggest uranium oxide reserves in the world. Its uranium income is, however, substantially "diluted" by income from a number of other divisions.

As such, 21 listed stocks with exposure to uranium may be considered as investable. There are six with a market capitalisation of $2bn or more: Cameco, ERA, Paladin Resources, UrAsia, Denison Mines, and sxr Uranium One. Following in terms of market capitalisaton are UraMin, First Uranium, Aurora, Energy Metals, Mega Uranium, Laramide Resources, Forsys Metals Corporation, Ur-Energy, Tournigan Gold, Strathmore Minerals, Khan Resources, Western Prospector, OmegaCorp, Berkeley Resources, and Uranium Power Corporation. sxr Uranium One is currently involved in potential corporate action with UrAsia.

RBCCM rates just five of these stocks, starting with Cameco, as "top pick, above average risk". Risks that are seen as applying to ERA can be seen as equally important for all other uranium stocks: fluctuations in the uranium price, currency, and project capex (capital expenditure) and opex (energy, material and manpower costs).

First Uranium is notable for its absence of "prior corporate history", along with "no meaningful comparisons in the market and no meaningful short-term cash flow". Paladin Resources faces notable hurdles at its Langer Heinrich and Kayelekera operations, while sxr Uranium One will be carefully studied for its ability to bring Dominion and Honeymoon into production on time and on budget.

Back on the fundamentals, RBCCM believes that uranium oxide prices are in the "middle" of a "bull market", with 2007 forecast prices expected to exceed $100/pound.

There is a cautionary note, in that prices could move beyond that threshold.

Uranium: going to US$240/lb?

Uranium going to US$240/lb?
The uranium market has been in an uptrend for the past six years. In the past 12 months, uranium has outperformed all other metals (except nickel), rising by 100% to US$75/lb. How much higher can it go?
A Canaccord Adams report published this week says uranium can rise to US$240/lb and still produce electricity for the same cost as a coal-fired power station at around US$63/MWhr.

Canaccord Adams’ peak price forecast of US$103/lb in 2009 is based on the assessment of the current supply and demand fundamentals in the market, which includes the likelihood of delays to major projects such as Cigar Lake and Olympic Dam.

With issues such as Global Warming being taken seriously by many governments as well as industry, nuclear power is being increasingly considered to offer an essential part of the solution in meeting rising electricity demand as well as addressing the issue of carbon emissions. The previous peak price was achieved in 1979, at US$43/lb, but after adjusting this figure for inflation you can arrive at today’s price of US$145/lb.