Richard Russell: Gold. Out in the Open

Out in the Open

Clipping from Richard Russell's "Dow Theory Letters"

March 24, 2011 -- "There is only one certainty regarding paper money -- the longer you hold it, the less it will buy in terms of real goods or real money -- gold." Richard Russell.

Yesterday was a banner day for the precious metals. Gold closed at an all-time high in terms of dollars. Silver moved into the 37 dollar zone for the first time since the precious metal bull market of the 1970s (today it's above 38 dollars an ounce!).

But there's a big difference between the current precious metals bull market and the bull market of the 1970s. The 1970 bull market drew tremendous interest (I was there). Everybody I knew (even the gold haters) were watching that bull market with keen interest, particularly during the wild "blow off" days of the late 1970s, when silver was rocketing higher -- rising every day by "limit up."

In comparison, today's huge precious metal bull market is greeted with yawns, that is, if it is greeted at all. I've been calling the current gold/silver market the "great stealth bull market." Ask the average man or woman on the street what's happening to precious metals, and they'll give you a blank stare and maybe a "Duh." Ask them if they own any gold or silver, and they'll give you a sheepish "Nah."

Gold (April) closed on March 2 at 1437.40, a record high. On March 9 silver closed at 36.04, highest since 1981. Yesterday both marks were bettered. Where's the excitement, where's the interest, where are the articles in the newspapers?

Time to study the chart below. As I've been saying, gold in its advance has periodically tested its 150-day moving average over the past few years (150-day MA is shown as the blue line on the chart). Note that on the most recent "correction," gold didn't even test its 150-day MA. When I saw this, I realized how powerful the forces under gold were.

Gold is now "out in the open" with no overhead resistance and no overhead supply. So far the bull market advance since 1999 has been steady, quiet, and orderly. Except for its spectacular slow and relentless climb, there's been no excitement in the gold bull market.

I don't think this is going to continue. Somewhere ahead the precious metals bull market is going to turn wild and speculative. Only one phenomenon will serve to create this excitement. That phenomenon is HIGHER PRICES. The public can resist anything in markets except steadily rising prices.

As for steady higher prices and excitement, I suspect that silver is about there. As for gold, maybe not yet. But somewhere ahead gold is going to catch fire. That will be the time when the great American public will decide that they have to have some gold, maybe just a coin or two, or maybe just a few shares of GLD -- but that time is coming.

Question -- As a new subscriber what should I do?

Answer -- Buy a position in GLD or SGOL or SLV. Assume a conservative position, one that you can sit with.

Question -- "What about older subscribers? What should we do?"

Answer -- Never mind timing this bull market. It can't be done, even by Goldman. You can add to your gold position. If possible, buy some one-ounce gold coins. One advantage of coins is that you're probably not going to trade them in and out. Sit tight with your coins, Put them in a place that's difficult to get at; in that way it will be a nuisance to sell them, even if you're tempted to.

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Richard Russell