Aug 28, 2009

Matterhorn Asset Management: A Shocking Fall

Some readers might feel that we are prophets of doom and that there is only gloomy news coming out of Matterhorn Asset Management. For people who want only good news we suggest that you listen to politicians or read the newspapers or your average stockbroker’s forecast. This is where you find the good news. But if you do listen to these people, remember that virtually nobody warned you about the events in the last couple of years, and that today most of these people are saying that the worst is over. And this is also what stock markets are telling us, isn’t it? These “optimists” whether they are politicians, bankers or from the media all make their living based on good news and this is why they will continually tell you lies and never warn you about the risks.

Investments are all about managing risk and our responsibility is to understand risk and warn investors when risk is unacceptably high. We have done this for many years and we will continue to do it. Sadly most investors base their investment decisions on hope. When government, private and corporate debt explodes the risk to the economy becomes very high. And when bank credit is growing exponentially and bank leverage is 50 times or more, this is very high risk. When derivatives reach $ 1 quadrillion with virtually no reserves against this astronomical exposure then investors should run for cover....

....With world debt probably increasing by as much as $7.5 trillion in 2009, there will be at least 100 times more paper money created than new gold produced. It can’t be difficult to forecast which money is likely to appreciate the most in the next few years – paper money with an unlimited supply or real money, GOLD, with very limited supply.

Short term gold is being suppressed by governments with the help of their bullion bank friends. Also, we would not be surprised if central bank gold has been lent to the market via the bullion banks. There has been no independent full audit of the gold in Fort Knox for decades. But we are convinced that gold cannot be held down for much longer. In the next few weeks gold will pass the $1,000 mark. Once firmly above $1,000 gold will move swiftly to probably $1,400-$1,600 in 2009. Even without the effects of hyperinflation gold will go up several times from current levels in the next couple of years.....

....It is not possible for two major economies like the US and the UK to function with 1/3 of the total population being affected by unemployment. This will lead to major economic, financial and social disasters as we outlined in our last report “The Dark Years Are Here“.

Consumers will be hit by increased costs and falling income. There will be energy and commodity inflation pushing fuel and food prices up. Interest will go up substantially, making mortgage payments rise. Government deficits will mean higher taxes.

“Government expenditure is surging and revenue collapsing. This is a recipe for bankruptcy“ ...

...House prices will decline in real terms making consumers poorer and many will lose their homes. A Deutsche Bank analyst estimates that 25% of US mortgages are under water currently and that 48% of US mortgages will be in negative equity by 2011. With almost 50% of US consumers insolvent and with real unemployment probably reaching 30% by 2011, the US will a bankrupt nation by then. Add to this a government which is already bankrupt today and it is easy to see that the US is facing total disaster in the next few years.

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