J. Rubino: A Tremendous Secret

In his new essay, "A Tremendous Secret," financial writer John A. Rubino, co-author with GoldMoney's James Turk of "The Coming Collapse of the Dollar," foresees an imminent worldwide currency revaluation. This revaluation, Rubino thinks, will correct the biggest financial imbalance of all, the ratio between the value of the world gold supply and the supply of fiat money.

Such a prospect is not quite a secret to GATA supporters. They may remember that the British economist Peter Millar contemplated in great detail such a worldwide currency valuation relative to gold in the May 2006 edition of his Valu-Trac Investment Research newsletter, to which GATA has called attention from time to time:

http://www.gata.org/node/4843

Such revaluations, as Rubino notes, are not done gradually but overnight, so that no one can trade against them and so there is no chaotic escape from the new currency system after it is imposed.

A clue in support of Rubino's speculation may be found in the communique issued last week by the G8 conference in Italy, which said: "We will refrain from competitive devaluations of our currencies. ..."

See:

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Sarkozy-calls-for-talks-on-apf-1742717360.html?x=0&.v=3

But of course the G8 pledge against "competitive devaluations" was not a pledge against coordinated and cooperative devaluations.

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"A Tremendous Secret"

7/14/2009

by John Rubino

Last week FOFOA posted a long article on the coming devaluation of the dollar and how it might play out. He thinks it will be sprung on us without warning -- sooner rather than later:

The point is that during times of transition, surprises are always the order of the day. We have a crazy-out-of-control government that has given in to the temptation of printing its way out of this mess. The deflationists view this as an exercise in futility, while the inflationists say that you cannot print these amounts of dollars without it affecting the markets sooner or later. A few cunning analysts are hedging their bets saying we will see another deflationary collapse first, followed by a bout of high inflation. But nearly all of the pundits who are still predicting "doom" have lengthened their horizon to several years to make way for the slow speed at which this train is tumbling down the tracks. Frankly, I'm not buying it. Call me contrarian, but I say that when the rubber band breaks this time it will snap back with a speed and fury that will make your head spin. In fact, I think that the longer this drags out (and I'm only talking weeks and months now), the more abrupt the correction will be. Both the 38 year timeline and the 96 year timeline have created an imbalance in the fractional reserve system that has gone parabolic in the last decade. I am talking about gold. No, the price of gold has not gone parabolic, but the ratio of available gold to outstanding paper currency HAS gone parabolic. The central banks of the world are well aware of this. It is why they have slowly, inconspicuously changed from net sellers into net buyers. This gradual shift is extremely significant, because as net sellers they were supporting their own fiat regime. But now as net buyers, they, as a group, are stressing it. Why would they do this unless they knew it was about to reset? This fractional gold reserve imbalance is the one imbalance the media and governments do not want you to know about. This is the one that will RESET the entire system. This imbalance, once corrected, will make central bank fiat currencies sustainable once again. This is why they are net buyers! Do I think this magnitude of a reset could happen overnight? Yes, I do. Why? Because that is the way you get the most "bang for your buck". Surprise is the order of the day! "Devaluations always happen by complete surprise as to exert maximum leverage effect."

The idea that we’ll wake up one day to discover that the international monetary system has been “reset” and that our dollar/euro/yen savings have taken a huge hit (while the local currency value of our gold and silver soar) reminds me of an exchange in The Virgin’s Lover, by Philippa Gregory (yes, I like historical romances). The year is 1560 and the young queen Elizabeth rules a country nearly bankrupted by a Spanish alliance that produced only war and debt. The English treasury has been systemically debasing its coins by clipping and shaving them, so that their face value vastly exceeds their gold content.

Elizabeth’s advisors have decided that the monetary system needs to be reset, and have been importing borrowed gold. On the appointed day they intend to call in the circulating coins and replace them -- by weight rather than face value -- with newly-minted coins. This devaluation will transfer citizens’ wealth to the government, impoverishing the former and enriching the latter. And if all goes as planned it will come as a surprise to most of the country.

But Elizabeth’s lover, Sir Robert Dudley, learns of the plan and is not happy:

Elizabeth turned and smiled at him and took his hand and held it to her cheek. “My Robert.” “Tell me, my pretty love,” Robert said quietly. “Why are you bringing in boatloads of Spanish gold from Antwerp, and how are you paying for it all?” She gave a little gasp and the color went from her face, the smile from her eyes. “Oh,” she said. “That.” “Yes,” he replied evenly. “That. Don’t you think you had better tell me what is going on?” “How did you find out? It is supposed to be a great secret.” “Never mind,” he said. “But I am sorry to learn that you still keep secrets from me, after your promises.” “I was going to tell you,” she said at once. “It is just that Scotland has driven everything from my mind.” “I am sure,” he sad coldly. “For if you had continued with your forgetfulness till the day that you called in the old coin and issued new, I would have been left with a small treasure room filled with dross, would I not? And left at a substantial loss, would I not? Was it your intention that I should suffer?” Elizabeth flushed. “I didn’t know you were storing small coin.” “I have lands; my tenants do not pay their rents in bullion, alas. I have trading debts which are paid in small coin. I have chests and chests of pennies and farthings. Do tell me what I may get for them?” “A little more than their weight,” she said in a very small voice. “Not their face value?” She shook her head in silence. “We are calling in the coins and issuing new,” she said. “It is Gresham’s plan -- you know of it yourself. We have to make the coins anew.” Robert let go of her hand and walked to the center of the room while she sat and watched him wondering what he would do. She realized that the sinking feeling in her belly was apprehension. For the first time in her life she was afraid what a man was thinking of her -- not for policy but for love. “Robert, don’t be angry with me. I didn’t mean to disadvantage you,” she said and heard the weakness in her own voice. “I know,” he said shortly. “It is partly that which amazes me. Did you not think that this would cost me money?” She gasped. “I only thought it had to be a secret, a tremendous secret, or everyone will trade among themselves and the coins will be worse and worse regarded,” she said quickly. “It is an awful thing, Robert, to know that people think that your very coins are next to worthless.”

Now, at least three things can be gleaned from all this:

1) FOFOA is right that the world’s governments stand to gain most from asurprise devaluation, since it will prevent us commoners from preemptively swapping our paper for real things, setting off an inflation that would make an even deeper devaluation necessary.

There's a rumor that I was reluctant to mention when it first started circulating, because it seemed a little too far down the tin foil hat / black helicopter road. But in this context it seems pretty reasonable. According to widely-followed newsletter writers Harry Schultz and Bob Chapman:

”Some US embassies worldwide are being advised to purchase massive amounts of local currencies; enough to last them a year. Some embassies are being sent enormous amounts of US cash to purchase currencies from those govts, quietly. But not £’s. Inside the State Dept there is a sense of sadness & foreboding that ‘something’ is about to happen, unknown re a date—just that within 180 days, but could be 120-150 days.” Bob quotes another source that “Panasonic has told their people to be back in Japan by Sept 09.” Harry Schultz’s remarkable take on the situation: “My HSL suspicion is that the elite plan another FDR style “bank holiday” of indefinite length, perhaps very soon, to let the insiders sort-out the bank mess which is getting more out of their control every day. Insiders want/need to impose new bank rules. Widespread nationalization could result, already under way. It could also lead to a formal US$ devaluation, as FDR did by revaluing gold (& then confiscating it). But devalue against what? The euro? Doubtful. Gold? Maybe. Or vs. the IMF basket of currencies (which seems more likely)—& much in the news recently. Any kind of bank holiday will push the US$ lower, which may be a bonus benefit to their ongoing scenario of letting the $ fall. Such a fall would get the devaluation they want without having to declare it. In sum, the insiders want more bank & system control, fewer banks & a lower US$. A bank holiday would suit all their needs."

2) The details of the plan will spread within an ever-widening circle of banking and government folks who, like Sir Robert, will demand the chance to profit from the insider trade of the century. Because such a secret is impossible to contain for long, once in place the plan has to be executed as soon as possible.

3) If the rest of us play it right, we’ll be able to at least protect ourselves, and maybe even make out (in percentage terms at least) like Goldman Sachs no doubt will.

Harry Shultz: “Obviously, U can’t open safeboxes if the banks are closed, so plan accordingly. During the FDR bank holiday, thousands of banks never reopened; it was a face-saving way of shutting them down. I would guess the same would occur today; thousands have little or no net value, loaded with debt, bad mortgages.”

FOFOA: “It matters not one iota how well you do in the stock and bond markets leading up to the reset. Neither does it matter what the "gold market" does between now and then. The ONLY thing that matters is how you are positioned on that one - fateful - day! Everything will be reset and surprises will abound.”

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